Four national polls published over the past three months point to a shifting political marketplace in South Africa, and the numbers carry clear implications for the parties competing for voter support and, ultimately, for the coalitions that control government. The pattern is consistent across the surveys: the African National Congress in decline, the Democratic Alliance growing, and the uMkhonto weSizwe party essentially holding its ground.
The polling sequence began in August with a release from The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation (TCS/SRF). Ipsos followed in early September, though its fieldwork was conducted before the TCS/SRF survey. News24/Sabi published a third poll in early October, and TCS/SRF returned with a second survey in mid-October. A fifth player, eNCA/Markdata, is releasing results across three weeks in October, but its analysis is limited to municipal-level polling rather than national figures.
The headline numbers are stark when measured against the 2024 national election. The ANC captured 40.2% of the vote then; the four national polls now show the party down by at least six percentage points from that baseline. The DA, by contrast, has added at least three points. The MK party is treading water, while the Economic Freedom Fighters present a murkier picture, either growing or shrinking by a couple of points depending on which poll a reader finds most credible. For party strategists and analysts, the direction of travel matters as much as any single figure, and the direction for the ANC is uniformly downward.
Reference material for this analysis is available at https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-10-20-four-national-polls-show-anc-decline-da-growth-and-mk-drift/
Yet the aggregate national picture, however useful as a pulse check, conceals as much as it reveals, particularly ahead of local government elections in the metros and larger towns. The national averages blur what appears to be a sharper erosion of ANC support in urban South Africa, most notably in Gauteng. Conversely, the same averages understate the leverage that smaller parties command in metropolitan politics, where their concentrated support translates into outsized bargaining power.
The examples are instructive. The Inkatha Freedom Party polls at 3% to 5% nationally, a modest share that masks its kingmaker position in eThekwini. The Freedom Front Plus holds prominence in Tshwane, and ActionSA maintains a presence across all three Gauteng metros. Even the Patriotic Alliance, with less than 2.5% of the vote nationally, is positioned to win enough seats to influence coalition formation across the metros and in the rural Western Cape. In coalition-driven local politics, these smaller blocs can effectively price themselves into government, a dynamic that national percentages fail to capture.
For the ANC, the arithmetic is unforgiving. Its growing rejection by urban voters means that the party’s declining national share still exceeds what it can realistically expect in the metros, where the erosion is steeper. That gap matters for any party whose electoral business model depends on converting support into seats and seats into governing positions. A shrinking national base combined with disproportionate urban losses compresses the party’s room for manoeuvre in exactly the contests where coalitions are decided.
How the ANC will perform in the rest of South Africa remains unclear, and that uncertainty is itself a material risk factor for the party and for its potential coalition partners. The four national polls offer a reliable reference point for the local elections ahead, but the decisive information, particularly in Gauteng’s metros and the larger towns, will come from the municipal-level data that surveys such as the eNCA/Markdata series are only beginning to surface. Until then, the national numbers stand as the clearest available signal: one major party losing ground, another gaining it, and a fragmented middle whose local strength may matter more than any national percentage suggests.
Paul Berkowitz is co-founder of The South Africa Brief and a director at Hlaziya Solutions.