An in-depth analysis of Sudan’s emerging rival government in Darfur, exploring its political implications, humanitarian fallout, and the looming threat of national division.
Introduction
Sudan has entered a perilous phase. Following the outbreak of civil war in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a parallel administration known as the “Government of Peace and Unity” has emerged in Darfur. Although not recognized internationally, this entity challenges the authority of the Khartoum-based government and raises the specter of a country divided along military lines. This article examines the origins of this development, its political structure, the human toll, and what it could mean for Sudan’s future.
1. From Political Upheaval to Armed Conflict
The current crisis traces back to the 2019 ousting of Omar al-Bashir, followed by a fragile transition disrupted by a military coup in 2021. A partnership between SAF leader Abdel-Fattah al‑Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo eventually deteriorated over disputes surrounding military integration. What began as political tension erupted into full-scale war by April 2023. By mid‑2025, SAF forces had regained control of northern and central Sudan, including Khartoum, while RSF remained dominant in Darfur and parts of Kordofan.
2. The Birth of a Rival Administration
In early 2025, the RSF launched the Sudan Founding Alliance (TASIS), aligning with rebel groups and some civilian political actors. A draft constitution introduced by TASIS proposed regional autonomy, including separate executive and legislative bodies. This culminated in July 2025 with the formal announcement of the “Government of Peace and Unity”, naming Dagalo as head of a presidential council and appointing a civilian prime minister.
3. Governance Structure and Territorial Reach
The new administration operates primarily from RSF-held areas in Darfur and southern Sudan but claims national authority. Its 15-member presidential council includes representatives from various rebel groups, tribal leaders, and former officials. The SAF, meanwhile, continues to administer territories under its control, including the official seat of government in Port Sudan, and has appointed its own civilian prime minister.
4. Divided Territory = Divided Future
Sudan is now effectively split. The SAF governs the northeast and central regions, while the RSF controls the west and southwest. This division, while unofficial, mirrors the conditions that led to South Sudan’s independence in 2011. Experts warn that if the current situation continues, Sudan could face a de facto partition, with two competing governments, economies, and security forces entrenched on opposing sides.
5. International Reaction and Legitimacy Crisis
The internationally recognized government has denounced the rival administration as a threat to national sovereignty. Regional organizations and international actors have largely avoided recognizing the RSF-led entity, stressing that it undermines peace efforts and risks institutionalizing the country’s fragmentation. While some tribal communities have aligned with the RSF for practical or ethnic reasons, widespread domestic recognition remains elusive.
6. RSF’s Strategic Objectives
The RSF appears to be pursuing several key goals:
- Establishing political legitimacy: By forming a parallel government, the RSF seeks to present itself as a national actor.
- Enhancing negotiation leverage: By asserting authority, the group hopes to secure a stronger position in any future peace talks.
- Institution-building: Administrative functions such as tax collection and public appointments are being used to entrench RSF control.
- Shaping international perception: Presenting itself as a political entity rather than a militia aims to reduce external pressure and possible sanctions.
7. Humanitarian Catastrophe and Civilian Toll
The war has triggered one of the worst humanitarian crises globally:
- Over 13 million Sudanese have been displaced, both within the country and into neighboring states.
- Famine conditions have gripped parts of Darfur and Kordofan, with reports of children dying from starvation in displacement camps.
- Ethnic massacres, mass rapes, and widespread destruction of infrastructure have devastated civilian communities.
- Access to food, water, medicine, and shelter is severely limited in RSF- and SAF-held zones alike.
The United Nations and humanitarian organizations warn that without urgent intervention, the death toll could rise dramatically in the coming months.
8. Risks of Permanent Dual Authority
If the conflict continues on its current trajectory, Sudan may experience long-term division:
- A Libya-style standoff could emerge, where no side achieves full control, but each governs separate regions.
- Rival military and political institutions may become entrenched, rendering reunification increasingly unrealistic.
- Fragmentation could embolden armed groups to stake out further autonomous zones.
- Humanitarian access and peacebuilding efforts would be further obstructed by administrative ambiguity.
9. Prospects for Peace and Reunification
Despite ongoing talks brokered by international actors, the path to peace remains uncertain. Civil society groups, excluded from both RSF and SAF leadership structures, continue to demand a civilian-led transition and inclusive governance. A sustainable resolution would require disarmament, the reintegration of rival forces, and restoration of a unified national administration—tasks that seem distant given the current political realities.
10. Regional and Global Implications
Sudan’s conflict has destabilized the wider region:
- Refugees are flowing into Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
- Armed groups from across the Sahel are reportedly exploiting the chaos to expand influence.
- Economic networks, including cross-border trade, have collapsed in many areas.
- Regional powers remain divided in their support for the warring factions, complicating international diplomacy.
Without coordinated action, the crisis may spill further across borders, aggravating already fragile state systems in neighboring countries.
Conclusion: Sudan at a Crossroads
The establishment of the Government of Peace and Unity by the RSF marks a dangerous turning point. While framed as a transitional alternative, it threatens to deepen national division and prolong Sudan’s suffering. The coming months will determine whether this rival government becomes a step toward negotiated power-sharing or a prelude to national fracture.
If Sudan is to avoid a future as a divided state, efforts must prioritize inclusive diplomacy, humanitarian relief, and long-term institutional rebuilding.
For a detailed overview of the rival government’s announcement and leadership structure, see the official report here.
